As Florida home prices spike, middle-class residents wonder if they can afford to stay (2022)

PENSACOLA, Fla. — Down on his luck in New York City, Herman “Masu” Phillips decided last fall to move to northwest Florida, a place he’d always thought of as “quiet, affordable.”

But three months after arriving in Pensacola with $3,000 in his pocket, Phillips and his children — ages 10, 8 and 6 — still haven’t found a place to live. They spend their days cuddled in a small tent, waiting for a homeless shelter to open at sunset.

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“I got the money to pay for a place. I got money to pay for my electric. But I just can’t find a place,” Phillips, 53, said earlier this month, as his children nibbled on sandwiches in an encampment near downtown Pensacola.

Amid a surge of demand from out-of-state buyers, limited inventory and booming neighborhood redevelopment, the Sunshine State is quickly becoming one of the least affordable places to live in the United States, a trend that is straining new home buyers and renters even as longtime homeowners reap a windfall of equity.


Over the past six months, Florida’s home prices have risen faster than those of any other state, according to a Washington Post analysis of Zillow data. As housing markets elsewhere have cooled, home prices in Florida have heated up, overtaking Minnesota, Maine and Connecticut in the national ranking. Florida’s prices are quickly catching up to higher-cost states such as New York and Virginia.

Florida’s wages, meanwhile, have grown at a slower rate than the national average. In the six months ending in November, when home prices in the state rose 16 percent, average hourly earnings in Florida were up 2.1 percent, compared with the national rate of 2.7 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The lack of affordable housing presents an emerging political challenge for Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who frequently argues that his hands-off approach to the coronavirus pandemic is bringing as many as 800 new residents per day to the state.


“Florida has become the escape path for that chafing under the authoritarian, arbitrary, and seemingly never-ending mandates and restrictions,” DeSantis said during his State of the State address on Jan. 11. “Florida is a free state.”

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'Everything is just blowing up'

But the surge in demand for housing in Florida — including a doubling in the number of houses that sold for $1 million or more last year, compared with 2020 — has some economists warning that the state could be headed for a housing affordability crisis similar to the one gripping California and other Western states.

“The trajectory right now doesn’t look great,” said Brad O’Connor, chief economist for Florida Realtors. “We are building more and more homes each year than the last, but it’s not at the pace we need to see.”

Phillips said he assumed his monthly $1,500 in disability payments would cover a rental in one of Florida’s cheapest housing markets. But he and his three children became homeless after Phillips could no longer afford the $89-a-night stay in a budget motel.


Now, when they are not in school, Phillips’s children play video games from their tent. To keep up morale, Phillips has been telling his kids he will one day take them to Disney World.

“I am from New York, and New York is like one of the most expensive places,” said Phillips, a former mechanic. “I’ve been to California, and that is expensive, and I knew I couldn’t make it, so I didn’t go. But Pensacola?”

Although Florida has long been associated with pockets of extreme wealth, local leaders say they are most unsettled by how quickly home prices are rising at the bottom of the market. Those trends now threaten to drive away scores of working-class residents, who remain the backbone of the state’s tourism-driven economy.

In December 2020, for example, 36,000 houses were worth less than $100,000 in Tampa. By November 2021, there were 14,000 houses worth that amount, a 60 percent decline, according to the national real estate brokerage Redfin.


There was also a 41 percent year-over-year decline in the number of properties worth between $100,000 and $250,000, a trend that also played out in Orlando, Cape Coral and in suburban Sarasota, according to Redfin.

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In Pensacola, the jump in home values has been especially stark in several historically African American neighborhoods. In Brownsville, west of downtown, home values have risen by 33 percent in the past six months, according to a Post analysis of Zillow data. The neighborhood has seen the second-fastest price growth in the state over that time.

The price spike comes as wealthy retirees and young professionals are flocking to the city, crowding locals out of the rental and housing market. Pensacola is also attracting growing numbers of real estate investors, and downtown streets that were once known for rowdy punk rock bars are now lined with wine bars, cheese shops and Pilates studios.


In Tanyard, a historically Black neighborhood where the city’s segregated beach was once located, developers are quickly buying up one-story shotgun-style houses and replacing them with three-story homes in vibrant Caribbean hues.

Kevin Fox, a local Realtor overseeing some of the redevelopment, said the new homes can sell for $250 to $500 per square foot, and 80 percent of those properties are being sold even before construction is completed.

“Sometimes, before we even lay the slab, it’s sold,” said Fox, adding transplants from California, Texas and the Midwest see it as “no-brainer” to invest in Pensacola because of the region’s milky-white beaches and the growing “vibrancy” of downtown.

The surge in home values in Pensacola has been good for many homeowners, including residents of color who in some cases are sitting on mortgage-free houses that have been passed down through their family for generations.


As he sipped his beer at Emerald Republic Brewing, one of a dozen new breweries to open in Pensacola in recent years, Antonio Rodriquez said that 14 years ago he bought his 1,500-square-foot house for $85,000, just before the 2008 financial crisis. If he sold it today, the 34-year-old auto mechanic estimates he could list it for $240,000.

“Everything is just blowing up right now, and with the way the market is, people are just going crazy for houses,” Rodriquez said.

But the price spike is also making it difficult for scores of Pensacola residents to secure affordable housing. Sherri Myers, a member of the Pensacola City Council, said the city is now facing a “dire” crisis, with a growing homeless population and limited availability of rental housing.

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“If I did not have my house, I could not rent right now in Pensacola on my income,” said Myers, 79, who earns about $40,000 in annual salary from her council job and Social Security. “I would be living in my car.”


Michael Kimberl, director of the Alfred-Washburn Center in Pensacola, said “hundreds” of Escambia County residents are sleeping in their vehicles each night.

Even many Pensacola residents who consider themselves middle class can no longer afford “the cheapest rent in town,” Kimberl said. He pointed to an ad for a two-bedroom trailer on the outskirts of town that was on the market last week for $875 a month.

“To live comfortably in that, you would want to have an income of at least $1,600” a month, Kimberl said as he scrolled through the listing on his phone. “But a lot of people here, if they are on Social Security, are only making $675 to $700 a month.”

Thomas Myles, 65, has been living in his tent since October, when he became homeless after he moved to Pensacola from Rhode Island about a year ago to take care of his late mother. A former jewelry salesman, Myles receives $713 a month in Social Security.


“I could go as high as $500 a month [in rent], and that would leave me with $213 to pay bills,” Myles said. “But I’ve been looking all around these neighborhoods and can’t even find a room in a house. People are just buying up all of these houses and rebuilding them.”

'Nothing is affordable'

Pensacola Housing Director Marcie Whitaker said 62 percent of people are now able to find housing even with a Section 8 voucher because of a “tighter rental market,” which she blames on the “great migration” of Northerners to Florida.

“People are moving here, embracing working remotely and living at the beach,” Whitaker said.

After Hurricane Sally damaged her apartment in 2020, 29-year-old Natasha Fields spent most of last year “couch bouncing” until just before Christmas, when she moved into a homeless shelter with her husband and two children.

Fields is a cashier at a grocery store who earns $11 an hour, and her husband works as a truck driver. The couple relied on federal housing assistance and local charities to move into a two-bedroom earlier this month. The $1,350 rent is nearly double what the family used to pay.

“This has been mentally brutal, and it’s draining on the adults, and it’s draining on the kids,” Fields said. “They can put all of this new shiny stuff in [Pensacola], but it doesn’t help anything if nothing is affordable.”

This year, 1,257 students in Escambia County public schools are considered to be homeless, according to school records. Melissa Johnson, a Pensacola social worker who works in homeless encampments, estimates the real number is much higher.

“In the tree lines, there are a lot, but everybody is too scared to come forward,” said Johnson, referring to encampments in remote parts of Escambia County. “They are scared they are going to lose their kids, and that is how devastating our affordable-housing crisis is now.”

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In Tampa, another traditionally affordable locale, City Council Chairman Orlando Gudes predicts more residents are “going to be homeless soon.” Gudes said that he has been receiving calls from constituents who say their landlord is “upping their rent by $500, $600 or $700 a month.”

Gudes blames Republican state lawmakers for the crisis, noting that market-rate rent control laws are prohibited here. In 2019, the GOP-controlled Florida legislature voted to allow local governments to require developers to build affordable units in new projects. But counties and municipalities must “provide incentives to fully offset” the cost to developers, which has tempered such agreements, Gudes said.

“We have been a Republican state for a long time, and legislators now need to get off their high horse and figure out what they can do to help people,” said Gudes, who is exploring whether Tampa can get around some of the state regulations by declaring an “emergency housing situation” to temporarily cap rent increases.

Since 1992, Florida has also had a robust funding mechanism to pay for affordable housing, the Sadowski Trust Fund, which is funded through real estate transfer taxes. But Florida legislators have consistently diverted the money to other things, including a decision last year to shift $200 million to fight sea level rise.

Jaimie Ross, chief executive of the Florida Housing Coalition, a Tallahassee-based group, said advocates are relieved that DeSantis has proposed spending all of the projected Sadowski Trust Fund’s receipts for the upcoming year — about $355 million — on affordable housing.

But Ross said state legislators need to spend even more to avoid an even broader crisis.

“I think people look at places like San Francisco and think, ‘Oh, that will never be us,’ ” Ross said. “I think they are making a mistake, because I think that will be us, and there is additional reckoning coming to state of Florida.”

Real estate boom or bust?

The question that now dominates discussions among homeowners, real estate professionals and economists is whether the recent surge in home values is sustainable, especially considering the state’s history of boom-bust real estate cycles.

One model created by real estate economist Ken H. Johnson, a business professor at Florida Atlantic University, and two other professors concludes that home prices in Orlando, Sarasota, Jacksonville, Tampa, Melbourne and Lakeland are currently overvalued by at least 30 percent.

Although Johnson expects the market to eventually cool, he does not expect the drop to be as steep as it was during the 2008 mortgage crisis, when home values in some parts of the state plunged by more than 50 percent.

“People are moving in at a more rapid rate than they were 15 years ago, so all the ingredients are not there for another crash in Florida,” Johnson said.

So at least for now, residents in neighborhoods such as Tampa’s Seminole Heights are divided between the haves and the have-nots.

A racially diverse neighborhood about 10 minutes north of downtown, Seminole Heights has seen an influx of home buyers and commercial investment over the past decade, including new organic pet food stores and hipster breweries.

Rick Silva and his wife, Katherine, bought their bungalow-style house for $60,000 a decade ago, after retiring from their jobs in Detroit. The couple made about $50,000 in upgrades to the house over the years but estimate the property is now worth $350,000.

“When I first came here, I was like, ‘what did I get myself into?’ because there were still a lot of robberies and break-ins,” said Rick Silva, 70. “But now I see it definitely worked out well for us.”

Yet for many residents who are renting in the neighborhood, Tampa’s surging home values have left them feeling pushed out of the middle class.

Reginald McClendon, 61, spent 23 years working for the Hillsborough County Department of Public Works. He now lives off his $692-a-month pension and $1,360 a month in disability payments, and his wife earns about $2,400 a month.

Four years ago, McClendon and his wife, were abruptly forced to move from his $1,000-a-month rental property after his landlord sold the property.

Now, McClendon pays about $1,560 each month in rent. He said he dreads phone calls from his landlord, worried that he’s either going to raise the rent or tell him he’s selling the property.

“The rent is due on the first of the month,” McClendon said in late December, as he opened the online banking app on his phone and saw he had $3.97 in his account. “My greatest fear is being uprooted and looking for a place to go.”


Will house prices go down in 2022 in Florida? ›

Overall, the Florida housing market is still pretty hot and is expected to stay that way throughout 2022. This is great if you're a seller because it means home prices are going up and there isn't much selling competition—so you get the luxury of choosing from the best offers on your timeline.

Is Florida housing overpriced? ›

A rental trends study finds 10 Florida markets among the most overvalued in the nation. The rental housing market in Florida is among the most overvalued in the country, and has among the fastest-rising prices, according to a new study of rental trends.

Will house prices go down in 2023 in Florida? ›

The company's analysts expect home prices to drop the lowest in these areas in 2023: The Villages, Florida (6.96 percent) Punta Gorda, Florida (6 percent) Reno (5.57 percent)

Will home prices keep rising in Florida? ›

Instead, a less severe recession could happen in 2023 as the demand for new houses is expected to continue to be high. Home prices are predicted to carry on rising, but this is happening at a slower pace now, as the increase in mortgage rates puts a dampener on house price growth.

Is it a good time to buy a house in Florida right now? ›

Not only are jobs hot on the market in the Sunshine State, but buying a house in Florida is also trending – and for good reason! Right now, fixed mortgage rates in Florida fall between 1.99% and 2.99%.

Will house prices go down in 2023? ›

Our new, higher, interest rate forecasts mean that we now expect house prices to fall marginally in 2023 and 2024. While there are risks on both sides, our base case is that prices drop by 5% overall, reversing a fifth of the surge in house prices since the pandemic began.

What's most overpriced housing market in Florida? ›

Fort Myers is the third most overvalued housing market in the U.S. and the most overvalued in Florida, according to a July analysis by researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.

Are Florida house prices dropping? ›

Home prices in South Florida are finally falling. Last month prices fell in Miami-Dade for the first time since 2021, and prices in Broward have dipped for the first time in months. For those who have been waiting for the market to cool down, this is great news.

Why are Florida home prices so high? ›

There are record-low mortgage rates, low refinancing interest rates, a scarcity of affordable apartments, less land available for new construction, higher construction material costs during the pandemic, corporations and investors buying up housing, and foreign investors buying more property.

Will 2023 be a good time to buy a house? ›

Now, as demand slows, an economist says US home prices could fall as much as 20% in 2023. In addition, a slowing economy overall could bring 30-year mortgage rates back down.

Will mortgage rates go up in 2023? ›

We project 2022 real gross domestic product (GDP) to be flat at 0.0 percent growth and to decline 0.5 percent in 2023, both on a Q4/Q4 basis.

What is the hottest housing market in Florida? ›

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The Suncoast is still one of the hottest housing markets in America. According to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, in Sarasota County the average price for a single family home is $525,000 with an average time to contract period of 10 days.

Is Florida housing market slowing? ›

The July sales report is the latest evidence that the housing market is slowing as homebuyers are hit with sharply higher mortgage rates than a year ago. Home prices have also continued to rise.

Is the housing market slowing down in Central Florida? ›

Inventory rose by a strong 19.9%, the third month in a row it has gone up, another signal that the white-hot housing market of the past 18 months is slowing down. The association also released a survey of agents that showed 74% of them think the market is cooling, and 66% believe the market has peaked.

Is Florida real estate Booming? ›

Florida median home values have grown by 33.1% over the past year. Over the past five years home values in Florida have increased by over 78%. Single-family home prices in Florida are up 17.7% as of October 2021 compared to the previous year, based on the most recent report from Florida Realtors.

Is it worth buying property in Florida? ›

In fact, the Florida real estate market is one of the most profitable investment markets to date. There are many factors to suggest that purchasing Florida investment properties is a rewarding experience. For example, the state offers people with a lucrative return on investment on their properties.

Is it smart to buy a house right now? ›

Based on data, now is a good time to buy a house — and first-time buyers agree. According to Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, more than 60% of renters would buy a home if their lease ended. Most expect rents to rise sharply in the next 12 months. The housing market may favor Fall home buyers.

Is 2022 a good time to buy a house? ›

It's becoming harder to buy a house as prices are up year over year, and mortgage rates are soaring in 2022. At the same time, consumer prices on everything are also on the rise making it even more difficult to save money to buy a house next year.

Will house prices fall when interest rates rise 2022? ›

Further rate rises are expected throughout 2022, which could dampen the housing market because it means mortgage repayments will increase. The cost of living crisis is likely to be the biggest cause of a slowdown in the housing market.

Will mortgage rates go down in 2024? ›

Despite these disappointing figures, the plan is still to increase interest rates in the coming months, with the Fed suggesting that the base rate could rise to 4.6% in 2024.

Should I sell my house now? ›

Bottom line. With continued supply shortages and high buyer demand, now is a good time to sell your home. And with interest rates on the rise, it may be better to sell sooner rather than later — if rates spike much more, some prospective buyers may retreat from home shopping.

Is Sarasota real estate overvalued? ›

North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL is One of the Most Overpriced Housing Markets in America. Demand for housing has risen sharply in 2021, and that has affected prices.

Is Tampa overvalued? ›

Tampa Bay has one of the most overpriced housing markets in the nation, according to new research from Florida Atlantic University. By the numbers: Lakeland ranks 12th nationally, and second in the state, with homes overvalued by more than 53.2%. Tampa — at 52.4%— ranks No. 13 nationally, third in the state.

Is Orlando overvalued? ›

(April 6, 2021) - House hunters in metropolitan Orlando are facing a decidedly seller's market, with the average property overvalued by more than 17 percent, according to a researcher at Florida Atlantic University.

Is it a good time to sell a house in Florida 2022? ›

The real estate market in Florida is going to be favorable to property sellers in 2022. Demand and prices are going to increase and give you a good return for your effort. Ensure you use the Mashvisor Property Marketplace to increase your visibility and get the best possible offer.

Is Florida more expensive than California? ›

Yes, Florida is much cheaper than California because the cost of living is just 1% higher than the national average. Some places in Florida have been ranked 8% lower to 18% higher in cost compared to the average American city. At the beginning of 2021, the median home price was around $382,000.

Is Florida a buyers or sellers market? ›

Is it a buyer's or seller's market in Florida? It is currently a seller's market in Florida, and high demand is causing properties to sell quickly and for more money.

How long will the housing boom last in Florida? ›

In Florida, the shortage is apparent. Active listings are now near their lowest point in years, and in Miami specifically, listings decreased 33% between May 2021 and May 2022. Throw in the strong demand for Florida real estate, and the state probably won't see excess inventory anytime soon.

Is Florida the most expensive state to live in? ›

Hawaii is the most expensive state to live in the United States. With a cost of living index of 193.3, the cost of living in Hawaii is nearly twice the national average.

Why are people moving to Florida? ›

Many did so for the very same reasons that people moved from New York – weather, taxes, lower cost of living, and more affordable homes and rentals. North Carolina. Like the people in Georgia, North Carolinians benefit from living close to Florida – 28,207 moved south in 2019.

Are house prices going down us? ›

A price decline on a nationwide basis is unlikely. "This isn't a recession in home prices," says Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "A price decline on a nationwide basis is unlikely." That's because demand for homes remains strong, primarily due to strong employment numbers and an "inadequate" supply of homes.

Will rates go down 2022? ›

Rates aren't getting any lower, and the housing market is not going to collapse.” For current homeowners, unless you got your mortgage more than 10 years ago, you're likely better off waiting things out than trying to refinance right now. Instead, think about a home equity line of credit (HELOC) or home equity loan.

Is the housing market in a bubble? ›

But last week experts agreed there is evidence the bubble is about to burst. The annual rate of house price growth slipped to 11.2 per cent in May, down from 12.1 per cent in April and 14.3 per cent in March, according to Nationwide Building Society.

What will mortgage rates be in 2026? ›

2.96%, which represents today's best nationally available uninsured 5-year fixed rate plus the projected increase in Canada's 5-year yield by 2026.

What will mortgage rates be in 5 years? ›

At the end of 2022, the 5-year fixed mortgage rate reaches 5.7%. In 2023, bond and mortgage rate declines correspond to policy interest rate normalization and an economic recovery.

What will interest rates look like in 2023? ›

Interest-rate forecast.

We project a year-end 2023 federal-funds rate of 1.75%, compared with 3.25% for the consensus. Further out, our 2026 and long-run projection for the fed-funds rate and 10-year Treasury yield are 1.75% and 2.75%, respectively.

Is it worth buying land in Florida? ›

Is Buying Land in Florida a Good Idea? Investing in land can be ideal for a new investment opportunity, especially in the Sunshine State. Many people opt to buy land because it's a limited resource—and it won't lose as much value as other types of investments.

What states are booming in real estate? ›

Real Estate Housing Market Statistics 2022
Overall RankingStateMedian Housing Prices1
3New York8
4New Jersey6
46 more rows
1 Jul 2022

What state has the hottest housing market? ›

1. Mesa, Arizona
  • Median Home Value: $424,977.
  • Median Home Listing Price YoY Increase: 26.40%
  • State HPI Increase (from Q4 2020 to Q4 2021): 27.99%
  • Population Growth (from 2010 to 2020): 14.85%
21 May 2022

Will there be a housing recession? ›

The U.S. housing market recession to carry over into 2023

Year-over-year change in private residential fixed investment GDP (i.e. U.S. housing activity). On a year-over-year basis, the ongoing housing downturn has seen new home sales and existing home sales fall by 29.6% and 20.2%.

Are house prices dropping in Orlando? ›

Market outlook

There were 3,309 existing home sales last month, down 12.8% from 3,793 sales in June and down 20.8% from 4,183 sales in July 2021, according to the Orlando Regional Realtor Association. The median home sales price fell 1.6% from $387,000 in June to $380,900 in July.

Is Tampa a buyers or sellers market? ›

Tampa, FL is a seller's market in August 2022, which means that there are more people looking to buy than there are homes available.

Who is buying homes in Florida? ›

Eighty-seven percent of recent home buyers identified as heterosexual, three percent as gay or lesbian, and one percent as bisexual. Twenty percent of recent home buyers are veterans and three percent are active-duty service members in Florida.

Is there a housing shortage in Florida? ›

Across Florida, there is a shortage of rental homes affordable and available to extremely low income households (ELI), whose incomes are at or below the poverty guideline or 30% of their area median income (AMI). Many of these households are severely cost burdened, spending more than half of their income on housing.

Why is the Tampa real estate market so hot? ›

Due to the low month's supply of inventory, Tampa is still seller's real estate market – which means that the demand from buyers is exceeding the current supply of homes for sale. The pricing of homes is trending higher and is more attractive for sellers in the current phase.

Will house prices drop in 2022? ›

This could in turn push average mortgage rates to around 4% (while still historically low, that is more than double the 1.6% rate recorded at the end of 2021) Based on this data, Capital Economics has forecast house prices to rise throughout 2022, before falling by 5% in 2023.

What is the hottest housing market in Florida? ›

SARASOTA, Fla. (WWSB) - The Suncoast is still one of the hottest housing markets in America. According to the Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee, in Sarasota County the average price for a single family home is $525,000 with an average time to contract period of 10 days.

Why are house prices going up in Florida? ›

Due to a variety of variables, the housing market in Tampa has outpaced many others, including a large number of potential buyers, a scarcity of supply, strong property sales, and an active employment market in the area. Overall, the Florida housing market is strong and is predicted to remain so in the next five years.

What is the Florida housing market doing? ›

Florida Housing Market Overview

In August 2022, home prices in Florida were up 16.4% compared to last year, selling for a median price. On average, the number of homes sold was down 17.9% year over year and there were 35,100 homes sold in August this year, down 42,762 homes sold in August last year.

Is it smart to buy a house right now? ›

Based on data, now is a good time to buy a house — and first-time buyers agree. According to Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey, more than 60% of renters would buy a home if their lease ended. Most expect rents to rise sharply in the next 12 months. The housing market may favor Fall home buyers.

Is it a good time to move house 2022? ›

2022 will remain a strong sellers' market

If you do decide to sell your home this year, your chances of a finding a buyer are very high, as we're still seeing huge levels of buyer demand, and not enough homes available. Despite this month's seasonal price fall, we expect asking prices to rise by another 5% in 2022.

Will house prices go down during recession? ›

Historically, house prices tend to fall when there is a deep and prolonged contraction in the economy with rising unemployment.

Are housing prices dropping in Florida? ›

Home prices in South Florida are finally falling. Last month prices fell in Miami-Dade for the first time since 2021, and prices in Broward have dipped for the first time in months. For those who have been waiting for the market to cool down, this is great news. But how significant is that drop in prices?

Is it worth buying land in Florida? ›

Is Buying Land in Florida a Good Idea? Investing in land can be ideal for a new investment opportunity, especially in the Sunshine State. Many people opt to buy land because it's a limited resource—and it won't lose as much value as other types of investments.

Where is Florida's real estate Booming? ›

Several cities in Florida - including Spring Hill near Tampa, Lehigh Acres near Fort Myers, and Palm Bay in Brevard County - are listed as some of the best cities to invest in real estate in 2022, according to Policygenius.


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